Global Renewable Growth Strengthens Amid U.S. Policy Uncertainty

Published November 28, 2025

Introduction IEA’s 2025 suite of outlooks, including the World Energy Outlook 2025, Renewables 2025, and Electricity 2025, provides a detailed picture of the global energy landscape at a moment when the United States faces questions about the pace and direction of federal policy. Despite these concerns, the data shows continued and broad expansion of renewable energy worldwide. Growth is driven primarily by structural cost declines, increased electrification, and a global investment focus that has shifted toward Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. The reports collectively indicate that global renewable capacity additions remain on track for record levels through 2030, reaching approximately 4600 gigawatts of new installations from 2025 to 2030. Low emissions generation is projected to meet nearly all global electricity demand growth in 2025 and 2026, highlighting the increasing centrality of renewables in the global power system. These findings raise important considerations for companies assessing future energy procurement strategies, building decarbonization pathways, and long term investment planning.

Global Renewable Growth Remains Strong Across All IEA Scenarios

Across the Stated Policies Scenario, Current Policies Scenario, and Announced Pledges Scenario, renewable energy continues to expand. In the Stated Policies Scenario, solar and wind hold the position as the dominant sources of new electricity generation capacity. Their cost competitiveness, combined with the aging profiles of many fossil fuel power plants, leads to consistent preference for renewable additions. In the Current Policies Scenario, which assumes slower policy momentum, renewable expansion still progresses through 2030. Key drivers include lower solar module prices, stabilizing supply chains, and growing electrification in mobility and industry.

In the Announced Pledges Scenario, renewable growth strengthens further. Countries in Southeast Asia, India, Brazil, and the Middle East announce capacity pipelines that support rapid acceleration. The Electricity 2025 report indicates that low emissions generation is expected to supply virtually all global electricity demand growth in 2025 and 2026. Across these scenarios, the role of the United States becomes less central than in previous decades. More than 80 percent of projected renewable capacity additions through 2030 originate outside the United States and the European Union, reflecting the rapid global scale up of investment, manufacturing, and deployment.

Key structural factors that enable this growth include expanding transmission development in emerging economies, cost reductions in both utility scale and distributed solar, and the replacement cycle for aging coal and gas infrastructure. Rising operations and maintenance costs for older fossil fuel plants add further momentum to the shift toward renewables.

Why United States Policy Uncertainty Does Not Determine Global Trends

Recent policy discussions in the United States have created a perception of moderated momentum, yet global renewable energy trends appear increasingly decoupled from U.S. federal actions. The center of gravity for investment has moved toward Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and parts of Africa. China maintains a large share of global solar manufacturing capacity, contributing to sustained low module prices. India, Brazil, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and Indonesia collectively account for an expanding portion of annual installations.

Comparative electricity generation costs further strengthen renewable competitiveness. Utility scale solar continues to offer one of the lowest levelized costs of electricity globally. As of 2025, increased manufacturing capacity has reduced prices for photovoltaic modules, inverters, and balance of system components. Even under conditions of policy uncertainty, the low cost profile supports continued development.

Corporate energy buyers also respond to these shifts. Many firms expand renewable procurement in regions outside the United States. Power purchase agreements in Asia Pacific, Latin America, and select European markets continue to grow as companies seek price stability and emissions reductions. These factors collectively illustrate how global market conditions drive forward momentum even during periods of U.S. policy variability.

Renewables 2025 and the 4600 GW Global Buildout

The Renewables 2025 report highlights a significant period of expansion between 2025 and 2030. Solar photovoltaic systems represent more than half of the total 4600 gigawatts expected to be added worldwide. Both utility scale and distributed solar installations grow due to component cost reductions and rising demand for local generation.

Wind energy rebounds after supply chain challenges experienced in 2023 and 2024. Stabilization in turbine manufacturing, improvements in permitting processes in several regions, and increased investment support new growth in onshore and offshore wind. Hydropower modernization programs in Asia and Latin America contribute notable additional capacity through refurbishment of existing plants. Geothermal and bioenergy technologies see incremental increases, supporting diversification of generation portfolios.

These developments imply greater integration challenges and opportunities for grid operators. High levels of variable renewable energy require investment in transmission upgrades, storage expansion, and digital grid management systems. Financing conditions remain generally favorable due to the long term visibility of renewable energy cost trends and shifts in capital allocation toward low emissions assets.

Implications for Buildings, Real Estate, and Corporate Energy Strategy

For building owners, real estate operators, and corporate energy managers, lower costs of clean electricity strengthen the business case for electrification. Heat pumps, electric boilers, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure become more cost competitive as renewable electricity expands. Companies exploring long term decarbonization pathways increasingly incorporate assumptions about stable or declining electricity emissions factors, influenced by rapid renewable deployment.

Corporate procurement strategies also evolve. With renewable growth concentrated outside the United States, firms assess opportunities for power purchase agreements in Asia Pacific, Europe, and Latin America. These markets provide access to growing pipelines of solar and wind installations that support emissions reduction targets.

Distributed energy resources gain new momentum. Rooftop solar, battery storage systems, and flexible load technologies offer cost advantages when equipment prices decline. Energy efficiency measures become more financially attractive when paired with declining low emissions electricity prices, enabling integrated retrofit strategies.

Conclusion

IEA’s 2025 outlooks show that global renewable energy continues to expand at record pace even during periods of uncertainty in the United States. Companies planning energy procurement and operational decarbonization face a landscape shaped by strong global market forces. The data suggests that procurement, electrification, and energy efficiency strategies should increasingly consider global signals rather than relying solely on U.S. policy expectations. These trends offer opportunities for organizations prepared to align their strategies with long term developments in renewable energy supply and clean electricity costs.

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